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Poker Blog established in 2003 as the first stop for poker news, poker stories, and bad poker advice.

May 15, 2006

What Were They Holding?

by Luckbox

Well, I won't say my ego is crushed by the fact that just two people found time to guess what my opponents were holding. Ah, screw that. I hate you all!!

Okay, now that I have that out of my system, I'd like to thank Wes and EZ for their guesses (and Joe Speaker for his IRC guesses), but no one came close. I'm not surprised, however, because you're guessing on incomplete information and my opponents are idiots.

If you want to guess, feel free to go back to this post before reading on...

Hand #1

You may recall this was the first pot I played at the NL table after sitting down. This was after I busted out of the tourney in tilt-inducing fashion. To recap, I straddled to $10 and was dealt the Hiltons, then raised to $40 preflop with three callers, lead out with $100 on an undercard flop of T96 rainbow, was called for less by a short stack all in and was pushed all in by the other player in the hand. I called and won the pot after another T on the turn and an 8 on the river.

So what were my opponents holding?

The player who called all-in for less was holding J9o. That means he felt that second pair moderate kicker was good or that he could draw out to two pair, trips or a runner-runner straight. The player who forced me all in was holding J8s. That means he was willing to risk another $150 on an open-ended straight draw or a runner-runner flush draw. I was 60% to win after the flop and 71% to win after the turn (which gave the OESD a flush draw as well). It was an $800 pot.

Hand #2

This hand was a little more complicated and demonstrated my abilities as a luckbox. It was also very profitable. I was dealt AKo in the SB and raised from $5 to $25 with 4 callers. The flop was JT7 rainbow and I lead out with $60 getting two callers. The turn was a K and I checked as did the cutoff, but the button pushed in for his last $125. I thought for a bit and called and then knew I was in trouble when the cutoff called behind me. I told the dealer I needed help and he gave me the Q I wanted. I pushed with the nuts and the cutoff reluctantly threw in the rest of his stack.

So what were my opponents holding?

The button flopped the mortal nuts. He was holding 89o which he felt was good enough to call my 5x raise (although considering the 3 callers before him, I can't blame him). His smooth-call on the flop, however, was his downfall especially since I lead out. I most certainly would have laid down to a reraise.

The cutoff turned the 2nd nuts. He was holding Q9o, which was an even more curious preflop call but I can understand why he called the flop bet. His check behind me on the turn however, lead me to believe he wouldn't call the button's push and that kept me in the hand to see the river. Had he lead out on the turn, and the button pushed behind him, I would have assumed I was way behind and perhaps laid down there. The Q on the river was a three-outer.

Preflop I was 56%. Postflop I was 14% and the 89o was 62%. After the turn, I was 7%, the 89o pushed despite drawing dead and the Q9o was 93%. After the river, well... lets just say the $900 pot was all mine.

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