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Poker Blog established in 2003 as the first stop for poker news, poker stories, and bad poker advice.

April 13, 2008

How to Win the Pick 4

by Luckbox

So, I think my last horse racing advice post was a little ambitious. Winning the Pick 6 is hard. So hard that when you do win, the payout is in 5 or 6 figures.

Saturday, BG and I put our handicapping skills to the test... and lost. I'd say it was close, but it wasn't the closest we've ever been. We lost because the very last horse we left off our ticket ended up winning the first leg of the Pick 6, and a 15-1 longshot (a horse I liked and a horse who shared the name of my niece) came across first in the 4th leg. Obviously, I didn't like the horse enough to push for her inclusion. And it cost us.

It was disappointing. As it always is to lose. However, on this day, my sadness was tempered by this:

Yeah, the Luckbox stumbled into an $1800 Pick 4 payoff. Remember that horse I didn't push hard enough to include in the Pick 6? Well, I thought enough of her to put her on my Pick 4 ticket. And when Stella Mark won Race 9 as a 15-1 shot, it set the stage for what I imagined might be a nice payout.

The Pick 6 ended up paying out more than $33,000. I'm really kicking myself now that we weren't in on that. Looking back, what's not to like about Stella Mark? I wrote in my notes, "Solid Beyers, good breeding for distance, solid trainer numbers." Not only that, she was coming off a bullet workout at 6 furlongs.

But hindsight is always 20/20. We'll do this again soon. This wasn't necessarily a blow to our confidence. I'm actually pretty happy with my handicapping. Our instincts were right, but your instincts don't always make it onto the ticket. Maybe next time they will.

| Betting the Ponies , | Horse Racing