Gambling On Politics

by G-Rob

My good friends here at the Up for Poker blog hate it when I write about something other than poker itself. This is not the "Up for Whatever Is on G-Rob's Mind" blog. Frankly I agree that such a blog would be the most irrational sort of nonsense on the web... which is setting the bar pretty low.

That said, I do love to gamble on nearly anything at all. One year Otis and I spent an entire Super Bowl betting on whether the next commercial would be "Car, Food, or Beer."

It's a sickness. But if you're sick like me, poker is gambling for pussies.

So here's another way to not-gamble-for-money-because-that's-illegal:

FIRST THE BACKGROUND

There are a number of places where a person who was so inclined might place a wager on a Presidential contest.

The best known is Intrade, based in Ireland.

Here are the prices for the Democratic Nomination as of 1:50PM Tuesday:

Obama 81.3 (down .2)
Clinton 16.1 (up 1.1)

Those are the price of a "share" that pays $100 if correct. They are traded daily... bought and sold among users like commodities on the US Exchange.

There are other sites that offer similar predictions in similar ways, but very few that allow actual wagers. It is not LEGAL to bet on this in the US.

For more lines check the Rassmussen Futures, NewsFutures, or the Iowa Electronic Markets

THE GAME

As I write this I'm bored out of my mind waiting for the polls to close in PA. I've made my "prediction" using the best information I can get and now I'm waiting for the die to fall.

But speaking of information, check this out:

These polls were all done in the past few days. First column is the pollster, second is the dates of the survey, third is the sample size (LV = likely voters) and finally the numbers:

InsiderAdvantage	04/21 - 04/21	712 LV	49-42 Clinton +7.0
Zogby	04/20 - 04/21	675 LV	51-41 Clinton +10.0
Rasmussen	04/20 - 04/20	722 LV	49-44 Clinton +5.0
Suffolk	04/19 - 04/20	600 LV	52-42 Clinton +10.0
PPP	04/19 - 04/20	2338 LV	46-49 Obama +3.0
Strategic Vision	04/18 - 04/20	1200 LV	48-41 Clinton +7.0
Quinnipiac	04/18 - 04/20	1027 LV	51-44 Clinton +7.0
SurveyUSA	04/18 - 04/20	710 LV	50-44 Clinton +6.0

Those numbers are pretty much useless.

Here are the Intrade lines:

Clinton 90.7
Obama 09.1

Now I'm not saying those are damn good 10-1 odds for Obama but it ain't a bad bet.

MY GUESS

I'm guessing Clinton wins by 10.

That said, I'd take the 10-1 and root like hell for Obama. As if you weren't anyway.

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