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Poker Blog established in 2003 as the first stop for poker news, poker stories, and bad poker advice.

July 1, 2006

A Day at the Races

by Luckbox

Apparently sucking out for 7 straight months catches up with you, and the karma of poker is returning the favor. I don't mind losing a race here or there, but one too many two outers is leaving me discouraged. I know, I know... correct decision. Still doesn't take the sting away.

With that in mind, I'm devoting another weekend to the ponies. First, it's the card at Arlington Park. Later, I'll probably do a little Hollywood Park. Then, I may drive out to Evangeline Downs for the big stakes race tonight. Finally, tomorrow is a big Pick 6 with Boy Genius.

So as I go, I figure I'll live blog a little for you. Enjoy!

1:00pm: It's time for race #1 at Arlington Park. I have my eye on Sweet Baby Ray and Small Fry. Sweet Baby Ray bled on his first race and is on Lasix this time. Small Fry has very good breeding and solid trainer numbers. When this trainer wins, there's usually a price. For some reason, Custom Cart is going off at about even money. I don't get it, so I can't bet him. Small Fry is at 12-1, and since I'm not sure why Custom Cart is such a huge favorite, I'm betting this one light with just a $2 WP on Small Fry.

1:07pm: Well, the bettors knew what they were doing. Custom Cart won by a few lenghts. Unfortunately, Small Fry got edged out for Place by my other pick, Sweet Baby Ray. Too bad I didn't do some kind of trifecta here, it paid $110.

1:18pm: In race #2, I think it's all about My Little Mimi. The trainer win percentages show this horse is in this race for a reason. The Beyer speed figure has jumped eah of the last two races and even just a repeat of last time will be enough. This horse is ITM 4 of 6 races. I also like Catchyounextime who's been ITM last 3 times against similar. Great breeding here as well. Just one win in 25 attempts, though. I'll also keep my eye on Willy's Hope and Mrs. Capp.

1:24pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$8) 2,4/7,8/4,6... (Pick 4-$12) 2,4/7/4,6/2,3,4... (Win-$10) 4... (Win-$5) 2... (Trifecta-$8) 2,4/2,4/All

1:28pm: Willy's Hope is a late scratch.

1:33pm: Well, unfortunately, My Little Mimi ended up going off at even money. She was 5/2 when I got my bet down. Catchyounextime didn't figure in the result. She made a late closing run, but couldn't get past a big pack of four in front of her. My Pick 3 and Pick 4 are still alive. On the bets on this single race, I wagered $23 and won $21. I'm down $6 for the day with a Pick 3 and a Pick 4 still alive.

1:37pm: Here's how #3 breaks down for me. Gigi From Fiji will likely go off at worse than even money. She's the best horse in the field. She's handled this class while having trouble when she steps up. The trainer numbers are outstanding. The competition should come from just outside her in Meet My Kid. She's won or placed in her last 4 claimers. Last race out, she stepped up and was slapped down. Great breeding for this distance. Indelibull Rose is my third choice.

1:58pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$4) 7,8/4,6/4... (Exacta $5) 7/8.

2:01pm: Well, all my Pick 3's and 4's are dead. My third choice, Indelibull Rose won the race with my top choice second. I didn't have Indelibull Rose in any of my exotics, however. That means I'm down $35 for the day.

2:05pm: Race #4. My top choice is Dubuque. He'd been showing Beyer improvement prior to a light regression last out. Has been in the mix in the last two vs. similar. The trainer win percentages are solid. Tenpointfive is going to get a lot of attention because he's got the best Beyers in the field. He's been ITM three straight vs. similar. He's had trouble making the distance, however. Irish Song shouldn't have that trouble. The breeding is the best in the field. He's also had some Beyer improvement. Irish Song is BG's top pick.

2:15pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$6) 1,4/4/1,5,12... (Trifecta-$12) 1,4/1,2,4,6/1,2,4,6... (WP-$10) 3 (BG recommendation)... (Exacta-$8) 4/1,2,3,6

2:33pm: Damn. Somehow, #7 Sign the Ticket won that race. BG's top choice Irish Song and my top choice Dubuque placed and showed respectively. That's how quickly it can go bad when one horse screws you up. Now down $71. Gotta hit a winner here.

2:45pm: Race #5. Spanning is my top choice here. She was the 9/5 ML favorite but is now sitting around 7/2. For some reason, I Love Lisa is now at even money. I like her, too, but not as much as Spanning. BG doesn't like my choice. The best prices will be Miss Expectation (my third choice) and In Case of Wind (longshot pick).

2:56pm: The wagers: (WP-$10) 6 (both BG and I like the price here 10-1)... (DD $6) 2,4/2,5,12... (Trifecta-$6) 2,4/2,4/1,3,6.

3:01pm: Spanning went off at even money so I didn't bet the win there, but he ran away with the race, slowing to a gallop at the wire to win by a mile. It looks like our longshot Proven Honor got up for the place. That means my Daily Double is still alive and no my bets for the race, I finished up $1.50. That puts me down $69.50 with a Daily Double still alive.

3:11pm: Big field for race #6, 12 horses. It's really wide open. Both BG and I have Lacer as our top choice. This is the 2nd off a layoff and a return to form would be plenty for this field. Second choice is Gallo Del Bar who's got consistently good Beyers and a slight step down in class could help. Lord Carmen is coming off a long layoff and is worth a look. Your longshot is Load a Chronic and anything north of 7-1 will get a bet from me.

3:18pm: The wagers: (Pick 3-$9) 2,5,12/1/2,3,7... (Pick 4-$9) 2,5,12/1/2,3,7/9... (Win-$20) 2... (Place-$10) 2... (Ex Box-$12) 2,5,12... (Trifecta-$12) 2,5,12/2,5,12/1,2,5,12

3:35pm: Disaster. I'm now down $153.50. Some way, some how, Rapid Proof won the race. Lacer stalked but faded and Gallo Del Bar never closed. My long shot, Load a Chronic ended up going off as the second favoritre and got up for third. I lost everything. Ugh. If this is a sign of things to come...

3:45pm: Race #7. I'm glad no one is actually reading this. This race was supposed to be about #1 Chile's Quest and #1A Omaggio. Unfortunately, Chile's Quest was scratched leaving the lesser of the coupled entrants. Omaggio is still the class of the field. That said, I don't want to bet him at even money or worse. I'm going to turn my attention to Chameleon who's coming off a layoff and Buillion who's coming off a win vs. similar and a place before that.

3:57pm: The wagers (I'm betting against the favorite on this one): (WP-$20) 5,6... (Exacta $8) 5,6/1,5,6... (Trifecta $12) 5,6/1,2,5,6/1,2,5,6... (Pick 3-$6) 1/2,3,7/9

4:06pm: Sigh. I was right, Omaggio didn't win. Unfortunately, it was Royal Flyer who won it and my money on #5 Systematic Saint only got up for show. Down $199.50.

4:20pm: Race #8 is all about Kentucky Derby alum Storm Treasure, but I'm not sold on him. Equal Opportunity is a good horse and worth a look. The long shots are Arbuckle Bandit (who I'll put money on), but he's likely out of his class, and Proudinsky who's likely been brought over to America for a reason.

4:28pm: The wagers: (WP $10) 2... (Exacta $10) 3/2,5-8

4:37pm: Sigh. My long shot went off at 43-1 and ran a great race, dueling until the end, but managing just a place. Storm Treasure was never a factor, as I figured. #1 Kingship eeked out a win over BG's upset choice Proudinsky. Make that down $219.50.

4:58pm: It's time for the ninth and final race. This card couldn't end soon enough. Can I get even? Not likely. BG says long shot Boom Boom Charlie (currently 9-1) could be the upset pick here. There's lots to like about Devil's Diary who will be about even money at post time. BG doesn't buy it. If the last few races are any indication, the big favorites are paper tigers. My 2nd choice is the second favorite, Class Ack. I wish the price were higher than 3-1.
Mr. Jingles could be a possibility here and with a good price.

5:03pm: The wagers: (WP-$20) 2,3

5:08pm: Fitting end to the card. Boom Boom Charlie never threatened. Mr. Jingles lead the whole way and, naturally, was caught to finish third. Class Ack won it going away. Guess betting my second choice might be a good idea. That means I wrapped the Arlington Park card down $239.50. I suck.

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